Valneva SE: Research Update and Financial Projections

First Berlin Equity Research has issued an update on Valneva SE, maintaining a "Buy" recommendation but lowering the target price from €6.80 to €6.60. The revised target reflects adjustments in sales and earnings forecasts for 2026 and beyond.

For 2025, Valneva reported product sales of €157.9 million, slightly above forecasts but 2.8% lower than the previous year due to reduced third-party sales, attributed to the expiration of a distribution agreement with Bavarian Nordic. However, sales excluding third-party collaborations rose by 9.0% at constant exchange rates. The year-end cash position was notably higher at €109.7 million, surpassing previous estimates.

Looking ahead, the 2026 sales forecast midpoint is pegged at €145-160 million, marking a 3.4% dip from 2025 figures. The Lyme vaccine candidate, VLA15, remains a significant focal point, with phase 3 data expected before June and a potential market launch in autumn 2027.