Vossloh AG's Revised Guidance Sparks Temporary Uncertainty

Vossloh AG updated its fiscal year 2026 guidance on July 13, prompting Quirin Privatbank Kapitalmarktgeschäft to reaffirm its 'Buy' rating, albeit with a reduced target price of EUR 80 from EUR 86. The updated forecast reflects lower expectations, with sales now projected at EUR 1,510-1,610 million, EBITDA at EUR 195-210 million, and EBIT at EUR 100-110 million. This indicates a mid-point margin of approximately 6.7%, down from the previously anticipated 7.7% and the 8.3% recorded in FY 2025.

Despite the margin contraction, H2 sales are expected to be robust, ranging from EUR 800-900 million, marking a year-over-year increase of 5-18%. H2 EBIT is projected at EUR 68-78 million. Moreover, Vossloh's order intake saw a significant uptick, with a 32.8% year-over-year increase. The order backlog for rail infrastructure reached a record EUR 1,140.7 million.

While short-term volatility in Vossloh's share price is anticipated, Quirin Privatbank suggests that the medium- and long-term outlook remains positive post-stabilization.