Original-Research: FINEXITY AG (von NuWays AG): BUY

Classification of NuWays AG to FINEXITY AG

Company Name:	FINEXITY AG
ISIN:	DE000A40ET88
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	EUR 16
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Christian Sandherr

CMD: Four brands, one ledger – the roadmap becomes measurable

At its first Capital Markets Day in Frankfurt, FINEXITY presented a new organisational set-up and, for the first time, financial targets per business unit. Together with the Q3 figures, the event provides a clear framework to track the build-out towards the regulated DLT trading and settlement system (DLT-TSS) targeted for 2028. In detail:

Value chain now mapped onto four brands. The group now operates under four brands. Each covers one step of the chain from issuer to investor, and each has its own 2026e forecast and mid-term target (3-5 years):

• nolivius – the issuance engine. nolivius structures and issues tokenised bonds, equity and funds; every mandate is to end up listed on Nundara. For 2026e, management expects revenue of € 2.1-2.3m (c. 80% advisory and structuring) and EBITDA of € -0.3m to € -0.1m, with positive EBITDA already in H2. The mid-term target is >€ 10m revenue at a 35-40% EBITDA margin. Roughly half of that is to come from recurring issuer and asset management fees and Nundara software. Transformation mandates for banks and asset managers double as a sales channel for the infrastructure.

• Nundara – the infrastructure core. Nundara covers tokenisation, register, trading and settlement. Today it runs a DLT-OTC bulletin board with 300+ tokenised bonds. From 2028, it is to operate a regulated DLT-TSS in the EEA plus a second venue in the UAE. 2026e revenue is guided at € 0.3-0.5m, with EBITDA of € -2.2m to € -2.0m. The mid-term target is >€ 25m revenue at a 50-55% margin, excluding any white-label income. Listing fees are to rise from c. € 0.1m to >€ 20m, or c. 80% of mid-term revenue. With a c. 85% gross margin and a stable cost base of c. € 1.1-1.3m per half-year, operating leverage should be substantial once volumes come through.

• Effecta – the revenue base, levered on margin. Effecta is the liability umbrella for 45+ tied agents, with c. € 100m p.a. primary-market volume; the acquisition of 90.1% is still pending BaFin ownership control. 2026e revenue is expected at € 6.5-7.0m with EBITDA of € 0.1-0.2m, as most commissions are passed on to the agents (gross margin c. 10%). The mid-term target is >€ 25m at an 8-10% margin. The lever is margin rather than volume: once Effecta operates the distribution infrastructure on Nundara technology, a larger share of commissions is to stay in-house, lifting the gross margin to c. 20%.
• VolksInvest – capital-light distribution. The retail app launched in May 2026 and currently brokers tokenised bonds. It is to become the group’s online broker and single investor brand, bundling all investors incl. FINEXITY Invest and Crowdli. Investors are acquired via the EGRO newspaper group (c. 70 weeklies, up to 10m readers), which is paid via revenue share. As a result, the marketing ratio is planned to fall from 30-65% of revenue to below 3%. For 2026e, management expects € 0.1-0.2m revenue and EBITDA of € -1.1m to € -1.0m; the mid-term target is >€ 10m at a 15-20% margin.

Nundara carries the value, Effecta the revenue. Today, Effecta generates c. 70% of group revenue and Nundara a mere c. 4%. On the mid-term targets, the earnings picture shifts decisively: at midpoint margins, Nundara would contribute c. € 13m, or roughly 60%, of an implied group EBITDA of c. € 21m. Combined, the four brand targets match the >€ 70m guided for the group, and the implied margin of c. 30% sits at the upper end of the 25-30% range. - continued -

You can download the research here: finexity-ag-2026-11-03-update-en-25f74
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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