Original-Research: Flughafen Wien AG (von NuWays AG): HOLD

Classification of NuWays AG to Flughafen Wien AG

Company Name:	Flughafen Wien AG
ISIN:	AT00000VIE62
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	HOLD
Target price:	EUR 57
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Simon Keller

LCC cuts to weigh on PAX growth, chg.

Flughafen Wien reported strong year-end traffic results (see p.2) and issued a mixed guidance for FY26, conservatively reflecting a passenger (PAX) decline with low-cost carriers (LCCs) and a return to the pre-covid pricing mechanisms. While the airport looks set to return to passenger growth in 2027e, we maintain our HOLD rating into the softening passenger numbers, pending insights on the timing of the recovery and on valuation grounds.

Still, in December, Flughafen Wien group significantly outperformed other airports with the number of passengers up 9.3% yoy (vs. peers up 5.3% on avg., see p. 2), driven by higher seat-load factors (i.e. better filled planes) and despite initial capacity adjustments with low-cost carriers.

However, more reductions are set to follow with the summer flight schedule in March 2026 by Ryanair and Wizz Air (together c. 26% of sales), explaining a forecasted c. 7% yoy drop in passengers at Vienna Airport in 2026 to 30.2m (eNuW). Ryanair stated that it is trying to allocate its existing fleet to those airports/regions, that are abolishing aviation taxes (Austria is not among them, for now), as long as its short-haul fleet capacity remains constrained.

At the same time, Austrian Airlines and and smaller carriers are set to gradually step in, catering the passenger demand and explaining why a sequential recovery is likely to start from summer 2026e (eNuW). Additionally, Malta (fully consolidated) and Kosice (at-equity) look set to increase passenger count by c. 7% yoy in 2026e partially mitigating the group level decline (eNuW: -4% yoy).

All in all, 2026e sales are expected to decline c. 5% yoy to € 1,060m (guidance: € 1,050m), also reflecting the c. 4.6% decline in airport charges at Vienna. Importantly, the airport charges should resume a sustainable growth path at a rate slightly below inflation in 2027e again. Net profit (before minorities) looks set to increase 3% yoy to € 216m (guidance: € 210m), on the back of efficiency measures (reduction of c. 200 employees) and a weak 2025e comp that includes c. € 56m in one-offs related to the cancelled third runway project. Notably, Malta Airport is not seen to show any signs of weakness, explaining the relative increases in non-controlling interest.

Capex is expected to remain elevated for value-accretive projects. For 2026e, a total of € 330m is budgeted of which c. € 125m shall be allocated to the Terminal 3 Southern Expansion at Vienna Airport. The project looks set to increase hospitality revenues per passenger by c. € 0.50 (eNuW; € 18m in total) in 2027e, indicating the immediate impact.

The most relevant events in 2026e should be any political statements on the Austrian aviation tax, March and April traffic releases and a potential Ukraine peace deal (Ukraine and Russia have been c. 3% of sales before the war). Surprisingly good news could materially improve the investment case and thus turn us more constructive again.

HOLD, new PT € 57 (old: € 58), based on DCF. - analyst change -
 

You can download the research here: flughafen-wien-ag-2026-01-22-longupdate-en-44da9
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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