Kinzey Announces Volkswagen Group Third-Quarter Delivery Decline Amid Weak China Sales

Singapore, Singapore, October 22nd, 2026, FinanceWire

Kinzey Announces Analysis of Volkswagen Group’s 14.3% Third-Quarter Delivery Decline Amid Weak China Sales and EV Market Challenges

Kinzey Capital Management Pte. Ltd. announces its analysis of Volkswagen Group’s third-quarter delivery figures, which show a 38.5% year-over-year decline in China and a 14.3% decrease in global deliveries to 1.89 million vehicles. The results highlight the growing challenges facing German automakers in China, where domestic brands are gaining market share and intensifying competition.

The quarterly fall is the steepest since the second quarter four years ago, when deliveries fell 22.4% during pandemic-related supply disruption. Each quarterly decline is deeper than the last, with year-on-year falls of 4%, 8.6% and 14.3% across the first three quarters. Volkswagen describes a persistently challenging market environment and treats the sharp fall in China’s overall market as an industry-wide issue.

China deliveries come in at 405,800 vehicles for the third quarter, making the country the largest single drag on the headline figure. Over the first nine months, deliveries there fall 30.2% to 1,378,800 units, accounting for most of the shortfall as global deliveries drop 9% to 6,011,000 vehicles. Worldwide brand figures for the quarter show deliveries down 19.3% at Volkswagen Passenger Cars, 19.7% at Audi, 15% at Porsche and 25.5% at Bentley.

A structural shift compounds the volume loss, with Chinese brands holding almost two-thirds of the country’s new-car sales by last year after overtaking Volkswagen Group. German carmakers’ combined sales in China have fallen nearly 25% since the last pre-pandemic year, according to S&P Global Mobility, as BYD and other domestic rivals push into premium segments German marques once dominated. German automotive exports to China fell 33% last year to $15.4 billion, dropping the country from second to sixth among the industry’s export markets.

David Nilson, Director of Private Clients at Kinzey Capital Management Pte. Ltd., regards the scale of China’s shift to domestic brands as “the main structural risk facing German carmakers’ earnings outside their home region”. Nilson characterises China as “a market that has moved from underwriting group volumes to setting the pace of their decline”. The arithmetic of the nine-month figures leaves the group’s recovery dependent on conditions in Asia stabilising.

Separate results from Porsche and Mercedes-Benz show the pressure in China is not confined to the Volkswagen brand. Porsche reports a 16% fall in global deliveries over the first nine months and a 33% decline in China across the same period, citing weak demand, the phase-out of the 718-model line and a focus on value over volume. Mercedes-Benz reports an 8% drop in third-quarter car sales, while its China deliveries fall 31% to 86,800 units.

North America adds to the strain, with third-quarter deliveries down 5.8% to 232,700 units. The group points to tariffs, regulatory shifts and the expiry of US electric vehicle subsidies. Battery-electric deliveries in the US fall 86.4% in the quarter and 78.4% over nine months to 14,900 units. Part of that drop is a base effect from buyers bringing purchases forward before the US tax credit expired at the end of the same quarter a year earlier.

Western Europe, the group’s largest region by volume, records a 2.8% fall in third-quarter deliveries to 780,000 units, although its nine-month total holds 1.1% higher at 2.53 million vehicles. Central and Eastern Europe gains 5.3% and South America 4.3% over the same nine months. Volkswagen acknowledges that growth in Europe and South America does not cover the declines in China and North America.

Worldwide battery-electric deliveries fall 5.4% over the first nine months to 678,700 units. European battery-electric deliveries rise 12.1% to 586,100 units over the same period, while those in China fall 42.5% to 48,900 units. The order book points to further European growth: close to 150,000 orders have been placed so far for the Electric Urban Car Family, comprising the Volkswagen ID. Polo, ID. Cross, Škoda Epiq and Cupra Raval. Battery-electric vehicles now account for roughly 40% of the European order backlog, a share that has doubled since the end of last year.

Whether those orders convert into deliveries quickly enough to offset China’s decline is the central question for the final quarter. Kinzey Capital Management views that backlog as a supportive but inconclusive signal for European volumes. Nilson frames the months ahead as “a test of whether Europe can replace the volume that China no longer provides German brands”.

About Kinzey Capital Management Pte. Ltd.

The firm manages discretionary multi-asset portfolios out of Singapore for private clients, companies, families and foundations, treating equities, bonds, funds and cash as a single book. Each portfolio is set by what its capital must achieve, when it may be called upon and how much fluctuation it can absorb, with instruments chosen to match.

Growth Portfolios, Income and Withdrawals, Corporate Reserves and Joint and Family Accounts are ongoing mandates lasting as long as the obligation behind the capital. Concentrated Shareholdings and Second-Opinion Reviews are one-off engagements built around existing holdings, and every report measures the portfolio against the duty it was set.

Kinzey Capital Management Pte. Ltd. is the firm’s registered entity under UEN 202105652G, with further information at https://kinzey.com. Media enquiries are handled by Chloe Lim at c.lim@kinzey.com.

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