Original-Research: Cantourage Group SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

Classification of NuWays AG to Cantourage Group SE

Company Name:	Cantourage Group SE
ISIN:	DE000A3DSV01
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	EUR 10
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Christian Sandherr

Q3 review: Quality over quantity; FY guidance at lower ends

Sales came in at € 19.9m (-2% yoy, -9% qoq), while EBITDA swung to € 1.9m from € -2.2m in Q3'25 (Q2: € 2.9m). The margin improved by 20.5pp yoy to 9.5%, yet the weakest of the year (Q1: 10.6%, Q2: 13.1%). Besides German price pressure, this was due to the regulatory transition in the UK, which cost sales in a higher-margin market. Gross margin almost doubled to 35.3% (-1.1pp qoq). For 9M, sales fell 17% yoy to € 62.3m, yet EBITDA rose 74% to € 6.8m (10.9% margin vs. 5.2%). In short, Cantourage keeps choosing price over volume in an increasingly crowded market.

Germany: price pressure reaches the premium shelf. Domestic sales eased to € 9.5m (Q2: € 10.1m). Falling flower prices and more competitors weigh on the market, and even premium strains are no longer fully shielded. Offers at around € 2/g are in our view hard to reconcile with regulatory requirements and should not prove sustainable in the mid-term.

UK and Poland: soft Q3, better set-up for Q4. UK sales slipped to € 9.3m (Q2: € 9.6m) as the market adjusted to a new rule allowing only EU-GMP certified products. In Q3, this weighed on volumes and margin, as products without EU-GMP certification could no longer be supplied. From Q4, however, the rule should work in Cantourage’s favour: with three certified partners, Cantourage is well placed as non-compliant rivals drop out. In Poland, sales halved to € 1.1m (Q2: € 2.1m) with avg. prices down 25% and Cantourage deliberately shipped lower volumes, protecting margins rather than share. Together, both markets still contribute more than half of group sales.

Broader portfolio reduces reliance on third-party flowers. The own brand gramz. (launched in July, >€ 0.5m sales in Q2) is sourced outright instead of via revenue share, leaving a higher margin and more pricing control with Cantourage. In September, a crude extract and a distillate (“Blue Dream”) followed, allowing pharmacies to compound new dosage forms such as gummies or inhalables, partly for self-paying patients. Distillates and extracts are already growing particularly strongly. On supply, All Nations, Green Karat and LOT420 have completed EU-GMP certification with Cantourage, coming with five-year exclusivity and easing regulatory burdens (e.g. in UK).

Guidance at the lower ends, still demanding. Management confirmed the FY26 guidance of € 85-95m sales and € 10-12m adj. EBITDA, but now points towards the lower ends. Reaching € 85m and € 10m requires Q4 sales € 22.7m (+14% qoq) and adj. EBITDA of € 3.2m (c. 14% margin), which looks challenging given Q3 trends, even with UK tailwinds; eNuW € 84.2m sales and € 9.7m adj. EBITDA.

FY25 group report and new CEO still outstanding. Following the IFRS switch decided in October, Cantourage had promised the audited FY25 group accounts with an HGB/IFRS reconciliation for early November. Both are still missing, so today’s yoy figures rest on restated but unaudited prior-year numbers. Likewise, a successor for CEO Philip Schetter, who announced his early departure in September, has yet to be named. Importantly, he remains in office until then.

In sum, Q3 underpins that sacrificing volume to protect margins was the right decision in light of the significantly declining prices (notable oversupply). With headwinds in the UK already easing, recent EU-GMP certifications and a broadening product portfolio, the group should in our view be able to return to growth in 2027. The group's growing net cash position (€ 10.8m at the end of Sept.) is seen to support this. BUY with a new € 10 PT (old: € 10.5) based on DCF.

You can download the research here: cantourage-group-se-2026-11-11-previewreview-en-66aa8
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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