Original-Research: MHP Hotel AG (von NuWays AG): BUY

Classification of NuWays AG to MHP Hotel AG

Company Name:	MHP Hotel AG
ISIN:	DE000A3E5C24
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	EUR 3.50
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Philipp Sennewald

Q3: rate holds, Conrad turns the corner

MHP published its Q3 hotel KPIs and confirmed the FY26 guidance it adjusted with the H1 results. Reported figures are diluted by the two hotels still in their start-up phase. Underneath, the existing portfolio continues to price up, and Conrad Hamburg showed its first convincing month.

Q3 hotel sales rose 25% yoy to € 56.5m (eNuW: € 57.8m), bringing 9M hotel sales to € 155m, also up 25%. Growth was again mainly driven by portfolio additions as the Hyatt Regency Vienna, consolidated since February, and Conrad Hamburg, which contributed for three months against only September in the prior-year quarter, together should have added some € 10m (eNuW). This implied, the existing portfolio grew c. 3% l-f-l. Within the mix, F&B again outpaced rooms, rising 31% to € 11.6m against 24% growth in rooms revenue to € 43.4m.

Reported occupancy fell 2pp to 77%, while ADR rose 3% to € 233, leaving RevPAR roughly flat at € 180. Yet, this understates how well the existing hotels are doing. Excluding Conrad and the Hyatt Regency Vienna, ADR rose c. 5% to € 239 at a stable occupancy of 81%. That is a solid result in a quarter in which the usual summer demand from the Gulf states stayed soft. Rate momentum was strongest in August, with ADR up c. 8% yoy but September reached the highest ADR of the year so far at € 285 on the back of strong trade fair business and a record Oktoberfest, yet slightly down yoy on a reported basis.

Conrad turns the corner. Conrad Hamburg’s ramp-up has been the main burden on this year’s earnings, and Q3 brought the first real progress. According to management, occupancy and ADR improved markedly with September standing out, pushing operating margin accordingly. This is the first clear evidence that the hotel is moving towards a sustainable level of occupancy.

Guidance confirmed, Q4 carries the year. Management confirmed FY26 group sales of € 220-225m and EBITDA of c. € 8m. On the top-line, this requires Q4 revenues of c. € 64-69m, up 21-30% yoy. Given 25% growth in Q3 and the additional Hyatt contribution, this looks achievable, with the lower half of the range the more likely outcome. The earnings side is more demanding. With only € 0.2m EBITDA generated in H1, the second half has to deliver c. € 7.8m. Yet, H2 is traditionally MHP’s stronger half due to the weak Q1, but also driven by trade fairs and Christmas market demand. The guidance remains tight nonetheless, as the Gulf states have not fully recovered and H2'25 benefited from key-money and a one-off grant tranche for Conrad (for reference, H2'25 delivered € 11.7m).

Investment case intact. MHP remains the price leader among German hotel companies with TREUGAST again rating the group “AA” in October and ranked its average rate of c. € 242 as the highest in the market. Its leasehold and franchise model allows the portfolio to grow without capital tied up in real estate. Sheraton Vienna (2027), the Autograph Collection hotel in Stuttgart (2028) as well as MOOONS Frankfurt and Autograph Düsseldorf (both 2029) are set to expand the platform. Once the Conrad ramp-up is completed and the new hotels mature, earnings should catch up with the rapidly growing top line. Current valuation does not reflect that at all. BUY, PT € 3.50.

You can download the research here: mhp-hotel-ag-2026-10-30-previewreview-en-4566b
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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