Original-Research: Scandinavian Astor Group AB (von NuWays AG): BUY

Classification of NuWays AG to Scandinavian Astor Group AB

Company Name:	Scandinavian Astor Group AB
ISIN:	SE0019175274
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	SEK 27
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Simon Keller

Q3 review: recovery takes shape

Astor's Q3 showed a clear recovery from the weaker second quarter. Stronger deliveries, improved cost absorption and a pickup in order intake provide a firmer base for further growth, despite uneven progress across the portfolio.

Order intake regained momentum. Orders increased 23% yoy and 120% qoq to SEK 178m. Although intake still lagged deliveries, book-to-bill improved to 0.7x from 0.5x in Q2. October's SEK 33m Marstrom infrastructure award provides an encouraging start to Q4, with high quotation activity supporting the prospect of further contract wins.

Sales increased 218% yoy to SEK 250m, up 47% sequentially (eNuW: SEK 240m). Protect drove the step-up, with sales roughly doubling qoq to SEK 193m. Higher deliveries were complemented by NSG's first full quarter of consolidation, contributing SEK 53m. Growth was more moderate in Industry, where sales rose 15% yoy to SEK 58m, including SEK 4m from PBH Teknik, consolidated since September. The acquisition helped cushion automotive weakness at Carbonia during its transition towards defence production.

Profitability recovered markedly from Q2. Adj. EBITDA reached SEK 35m (+104% yoy, eNuW: SEK 30m), with the margin recovering to 13.9% from 6.2% in Q2. Personnel costs fell 14% qoq to SEK 42m (+51% yoy vs. sales growth of 218%), despite NSG's first full quarter of consolidation. Personnel costs should remain broadly stable in the near term. Protect's margin improved to 14.4% from 8.2% in Q2, reflecting better performance across its businesses. Industry was near break-even, reflecting automotive weakness at Carbonia and preparatory costs for defence framework agreements. The transition should ease entering 2027, supporting better capacity utilisation and margins as defence volumes ramp.

The order book supports broadly stable sales into Q4. Backlog scheduled for delivery before year-end stood at SEK 276m, covering c. 109% of our Q4 sales estimate (eNuW: sales: SEK 253m; EBITDA: SEK 35m). Full delivery would lift FY26 sales to c. SEK 827m, providing c. 3% upside to our SEK 805m estimate. While most of NSG's SEK 256m contract now scheduled for 2027, the completion of a previously postponed Protect delivery after quarter-end is nevertheless an encouraging sign that order execution is progressing.

Ammunity and NSG support growth, with Industry adding margin upside potential. Ammunity's expanded capacity offers substantial volume upside, with a Latvian strategic partnership and new European customers representing potential catalysts. NSG benefits from infrastructure-protection demand, and Industry's defence ramp should lift utilisation and margins. Selective acquisitions provide an additional route to growth.

Action: D&A assumptions raised slightly following higher-than-expected charges in Q3, partly reflecting PPA amortisation.

Reiterate BUY, unchanged PT of SEK 27, based on a blend of DCF and peer group valuation.

You can download the research here: scandinavian-astor-group-ab-2026-11-12-previewreview-en-c82e8
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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