Original-Research: Semperit AG Holding (von NuWays AG): BUY

Classification of NuWays AG to Semperit AG Holding

Company Name:	Semperit AG Holding
ISIN:	AT0000785555
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	EUR 23
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Sarah Hellemann

Q3 26: Margins successfully defended, Q4e weaker; chg. est.

Yesterday, Semperit published its Q3 results. These showed slower margin normalization, than previously expected at the expense of growth. In detail:

Q3 revenue increased by 4.3% yoy to € 170m (eNuW: € 176m). Continued strong growth in SEA more than offset a slight decline in SIA revenue, where demand remained slightly decreased following substantial product price increases earlier in the year.

Q3 operating EBITDA margin at 17.1%, up 3.1pp. The operating EBITDA rose by 27.8% yoy to € 29m, supported by moderate top-line growth, elevated other operating income (€ 3.4m insurance-related one-off) and a reduction in other operating expenses, reflecting cost discipline.

SIA's strong margins defended. Despite a slight sales decrease of 1.5% yoy to € 66.5m (eNuW: € 71.3m), the segment's margin was up 6.3pp at 26.2% (down only 1.9pp qoq). We attribute this mainly to operational efficiency gains and strong customer negotiation outcomes. EBITDA stood at € 17.4m (eNuW: € 15.7m), up 29.3% yoy.

Solid SEA performance in Q3. SEA showed strong revenue growth of 8.5% yoy to € 104m, broadly in line with expectations (eNuW: € 105m), with a 1.7pp yoy EBITDA margin gain to 13.9%. In our view, this reflects a stronger performance across businesses (Form, Belting and LSR), supported by recent internal optimization.

Free Cash Flow improved. Q3 FCF stood at € 10.6m (YTD € 41m), up € 2.2m yoy. This was carried by reduced financing expenses and a stronger operating CF. The 9M cash balance amounted to € 107.2m, providing the company with ample leeway for M&A opportunities.

Top-line guidance adjusted, bottom-line unchanged. Semperit reduced its FY26 revenue guidance from 'high-single digit growth' to c. 5% revenue growth, implying € 696m in revenue. The operating EBITDA guidance of c. € 115m was confirmed. This implies a weak Q4 with mid-single digit sales decline and an operational EBITDA margin of c. 10% (vs 18.6% during 9M). We attribute this to a combination of pricing and volume pressure, accompanied by raw material headwinds. We hence adjust our estimates accordingly.

Slow start into FY27e expected. Although spot price uncertainty remains, we anticipate a further decline of raw material prices to lead to pricing pressure and subsequently margin normalization throughout H1'27. From H2 onwards, the company looks set to return to profitable growth.

Semperit continues to offer attractive upside potential of c. 32% to our PT, trading at reasonable 13.3x P/E (FY26e). With a streamlined cost structure in place, Semperit is seen as ideally positioned to benefit from cyclical demand strengthening. At the same time, its strategic M&A ambitions are seen as a further catalyst. In our view, the company is well positioned to expand its product offering while leveraging its elastomer expertise.

Maintaining BUY at a reduced PT of € 23.0 (previously € 23.5), based on DCF.

You can download the research here: semperit-ag-holding-2026-11-13-previewreview-en-98e2e
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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