Original-Research: tonies SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

Classification of NuWays AG to tonies SE

Company Name:	tonies SE
ISIN:	LU2333563281
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	EUR 14.5
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Christian Sandherr

Q1 confirms to group's growth trajectory

tonies delivered a strong Q1 2026, with group revenue of € 126m, +35% yoy in constant currency, largely in line with eNuW and consensus of € 123m. Reported growth was slightly lower at 29% due to USD/EUR headwinds (should fade from June onwards). Next to an earlier Easter providing a modest timing tailwind, Toniebox 2 hardware momentum remains exceptional, with box revenues up 54% yoy at € 25m; figurines +25% yoy at € 95m. Full-year guidance confirmed. Management expects >€ 760m revenue (eNuW: 793m, eCons € 778m) and 9-11% adj. EBITDA margin (eNuW: 10.0%, eCons 10.4%).

DACH: 28% growth in a near-saturated market underpins TB2 TAM expansion. The DACH region, where tonies holds ~50% household penetration among 3-7 year olds and 80% brand awareness, returned to strong growth. TB2 is broadening the addressable age group to 1-9 years via My First Tonies and Tonieplay, adding a new demand layer on top of the existing base. tonies added more revenue yoy than any other property or manufacturer in German preschool toys, for the 12th consecutive quarter as category leader.

North America: already #2 in US preschool toys. North America contributed € 48m (+34% cc) as tonies is now the #2 preschool toy in the US (vs #6 just 1 year ago). The Q4 2025 customer cohort is showing strong figurine-buying behaviour in early 2026.

Rest of World: 53% growth, yet still in early innings. ROW surged to € 28m (+53% cc), driven by the UK, France, and Australia, in all of which tonies now ranks as the #1 preschool toy. tonies is leading while still at a very early penetration stage in each territory. This mirrors the early DACH trajectory and reinforces our view that ROW will quickly transform into a significant revenue contributor (eNuW: 34% CAGR to € 335m through FY28e).

TB2 flywheel spinning, Pokémon and Sports collaborations. Toniebox revenue grew over 60% yoy cc in Q1. The TB2's expanded age range and Tonieplay functionality are clearly resonating with consumers. Figurine revenues grew ~30% yoy cc to to € 95m, the key recurring revenue metric. Looking ahead, Pokémon (world's highest-grossing IP) launches in summer 2026 and should be a significant customer acquisition driver. The DFL/Bundesliga Tonieplay collaboration opens sports as an entirely new content genre, scalable to other leagues globally.

Current risks largely mitigated. US tariffs are being managed via sourcing flexibility, pricing levers, and secured inventory. Freight is largely unaffected through routing via the Cape of Good Hope and low per-unit costs on figurines. On FX, natural hedges in the cost base limit P&L impact despite top-line headwinds. Consumer sentiment risk is mitigated by category resilience; families consistently prioritise quality children's experiences.

CMD, a potential catalyst. on June 18th, we expect the company to shed additional light on mid-term targets, international expansion plans and Tonieplay monetisation.

Reiterate BUY with an unchanged € 14.50 PT based on DCF.

You can download the research here: tonies-se-2026-05-15-previewreview-en-cd467
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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